2026년 말까지 스페이스X-테슬라 합병 가능성, 주가에 미칠 영향은?

Elon Musk runs both Tesla (TSLA +3.68%) and Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX +3.11%), better known as just SpaceX. Both businesses work on overlapping projects at times, and there's considerable incentive for them to merge, as doing so could unlock synergies and make it easier for them to raise money. Plus, combined, their growth potential would be even more massive, potentially attracting more growth investors along the way. Many growth investors and analysts have concluded that it's a matter of when, not if, a merger will take place. There have even been rumblings that a deal could materialize before the year comes to a close. But that doesn't mean either stock would be likely to surge if that were to happen. Image source: Getty Images. Why a deal might happen before the end of 2026 An analyst at Barclays, Dan Levy, suggested that due to favorable conditions under the Trump administration, there may be an incentive to get a deal done sooner rather than later. While the U.S. president and Musk have at times had a volatile relationship, Musk has reportedly donated $276 million to support Republican campaign efforts in the upcoming midterm elections, which the president would likely view favorably. SPCX Space Exploration Technologies NASDAQ · As of 11:30 AM ET 10/19/26 That doesn't, of course, mean that a deal is likely or that it would obtain easy approval, but it does suggest that the relationship may not be strained at all. Meanwhile, Levy points to Tesla's annual general meeting, which must take place by Dec. 6, as a key date to watch, as it could be when a vote on a potential deal takes place. There isn't an awful lot of time before then, but there is certainly a case as to why a merger may at least be announced in the near future. Buying either stock based on a possible merger could be risky SpaceX and Tesla are both highly valued and expensive stocks. The reality is that while a merger would certainly unlock more growth opportunities, investors have likely already priced that into their respective valuations. Thus, even if an announcement does take place, it may not lead to a huge surge for either stock. TSLA Tesla NASDAQ · As of 11:31 AM ET 10/19/26 It's also not necessarily a guarantee that a large premium would be paid for the company being acquired, which can sometimes send shares of the business much higher. SpaceX isn't profitable, and while Tesla is, its stock trades at a hefty price-to-earnings multiple of more than 300. Both stocks have plenty of long-term growth and bullishness priced into their valuations; investors shouldn't expect them to take off, even if a merger is announced. And with high valuations, they still have plenty of downside risk.